The U.S. now expects oil supply disruptions stemming from the U.S.-Iran war to reach about 600,000 barrels per day through the end of next year as the conflict continues to crimp shipments via the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Oil transported through the waterway averaged 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, according to estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. That compares to an average of 21.6 million in the last quarter of 2025, before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran.

The figures indicate that a brief intermission in fighting, when a so-called memorandum of understanding was signed, did little to blunt the impact of one of the worst disruptions to global energy markets in history. A deal between Iran and Oman to reopen the strait remains elusive, though officials indicate talks are progressing.

As the conflict extends into a sixth month, consumers around the world are once again facing the prospect of higher fuel prices and inflation. The EIA hiked gasoline and diesel price forecasts for 2026 by 3.7% and 5.4% respectively and increased its 2027 forecast for retail gasoline prices by 6.5% from its estimates a month earlier.

The volume of oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz remains difficult to pin down in real time, as vessels going dark obscure shipping activity, leading to discrepancies in estimates among market participants. About 9 million barrels of oil a day exited the strait on average over the past week, according to Energy Secretary Chris Wright.

The agency also estimates that Middle East production shut-ins eased to average about 5.5 million barrels a day in July, compared to 7.5 million barrels a day in June. The volume of oil shut in is expected to swell again to 6.6 million barrels a day in the third quarter.

Multiple Middle Eastern countries have been forced to curtail output as limited access to global markets strains available storage capacity.

The report assumes that recent threats to vessels carrying Saudi Arabian crude through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have not resulted in additional production shut-ins. If that assumption holds, the agency expects most production and trade flows to take until early 2027 to return to pre-war levels.

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