In late August, Kalshi announced brand partnerships with the San Diego Padres and four other Major League Baseball clubs. The company will serve as the prediction market partner for the teams, with collaborations said to include in-stadium signage alongside social media and fan activations.

Founded in 2018, Kalshi is a financial exchange, regulated by the federal government, where users can wager on the likelihood of events big and small, such as who will be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee or whether it will rain today in San Antonio.

It is described as a prediction market for a broad range of topics, but sports-related trading dominates on the platform. In 2025, more than 90% of trades were sports related, with the trades representing 95% of Kalshi’s revenue, according to court documents.

The MLB deals could be worth as much as eight figures per year for teams and may help introduce a younger demographic to the game, according to The Athletic. But there’s also potential to alienate existing fans. Padres fans on Reddit were largely turned off by the arrangement, taking offense to what they perceive as the team’s endorsement of gambling.

Traditional sports betting is illegal in California. And there is an ongoing legal debate about whether Kalshi is actually a sports betting platform subject to state gambling laws.

Question: Did the Padres make the right call in partnering with Kalshi?

Economists

Ray Major, economist

YES: By being federally regulated, Kalshi bridges the illegal gambling market and allows for a partnership that is a major financial and strategic win for the Padres. It could be worth tens of millions of dollars, which hopefully will be reinvested in player payroll and stadium upgrades, ultimately benefiting the San Diego region. Furthermore, it will drive ticket sales as it plays well with the next generation of Padres fans who are younger, more tech-savvy and want interactive digital engagement.

James Hamilton, UC San Diego

NO: Direct betting on sports events is not legal in California. One reason is to minimize any possible financial incentives for players to throw a game. A second reason is that for some people, gambling can become a very destructive addiction. Although placing a wager on a game using prediction markets is currently legal in California, it is pretty similar to a direct bet on the game. The Padres should not be encouraging this.

Norm Miller, University of San Diego

YES: For the owners, but not for the fans. The Padres get a new revenue stream with low marginal cost; no need for betting windows when you can lose money right from your phone. A family of four already drops $200 to $400 just to attend a game (with parking, tickets and food), yet ownership assumes fans still have pocket cash left to pick, which they will spin as “fan engagement.” Meanwhile, insiders (clubhouse staff, trainers, agents, and their buddies) will be the ones cleaning up while fans donate to the cause.

Kelly Cunningham, San Diego Institute for Economic Research

NO: Gambling undoubtedly boosts the popularity of professional sports, but that appeal highly depends on the legitimacy of genuine competition. Prediction markets facilitate and encourage wagering that can become highly addictive and devastating to participants’ finances. Embracing these platforms further incentivizes efforts to manipulate outcomes and undermine competitive integrity. With so much money at stake, the risk of corruption may become overwhelming for sports. Just the appearance of impropriety undermines public trust and legitimacy in competitive sports.

Alan Gin, University of San Diego

YES: Despite calling itself a prediction market, Kalshi is effectively gambling. Purists would argue that the Padres are endorsing gambling. But these “prediction markets” are here to stay and are likely to grow. The small-market Padres could remain pure and unilaterally surrender the extra revenue from the partnership with Kalshi, or they could use those resources to compete with the teams in larger markets. One caveat is that there need to be safeguards against insider information being used.

David Ely, San Diego State University

NO: Partnering with MLB teams helps to normalize sports-related trading on prediction markets. While teams may welcome the new source of revenue and new fans, there are downsides such as the alienation of current fans who view prediction markets as gambling platforms. Those who are on the losing side of prediction market trades may direct their frustration toward players. Players are more likely to receive hate messages on social media and other forms of threats.

Caroline Freund, University of California-San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy

YES: For the Padres. Sponsorship dollars are high-margin, and fans do not walk away over a sponsor choice. Any backlash is likely to be short-lived, while the cash keeps flowing. The harder question sits with the rest of us. Kalshi insists it is a federally regulated financial market; New York, Nevada, New Jersey, and Massachusetts have all moved against it as an illegal gambling operation. Whether prediction markets can sidestep state gambling laws is the real policy debate.

Executives

Chris Van Gorder, Scripps Health

NO: As a healthcare professional, I have concerns about gambling addiction, but I’m also concerned that Kalshi moved into healthcare in July, allowing people to trade on Phase 3 clinical-trial outcomes and FDA regulatory decisions. Imagine a physician-investigator trading on Kalshi. While healthcare is fundamentally different than baseball or elections, there is a real risk of insider-information trading, which is a fundamental problem with all aspects of Kalshi.

Jamie Moraga, Franklin Revere

NO: Financially, the Padres made a business decision with high revenue potential. But the right call should account for more than short-term sponsorship dollars. The Padres aren’t alone, as several MLB franchises have partnered with Kalshi, while MLB has a partnership with Polymarket. But Kalshi’s sports contracts face legal challenges, and many fans view prediction markets as a form of online gambling that conflicts with baseball’s traditions and values. Long-term legal and reputational risks could outweigh the financial benefit.

Phil Blair, Manpower

YES: Kalshi is currently a legal form of online betting. There is no reason not to maximize the Padres’ presence in sites that are followed by young baseball fans. Whether it should be legal for all to use Kalshi for reckless gambling is another possible question for the Econometer panel in the future.

Gary London, London Group Realty Advisors

NO: While our beloved Padres have every right to maximize their revenue, particularly when they return the favor by fielding a great team at the best ballpark, gambling and betting have become uncomfortably pervasive in our society. From an economic perspective, it is regressive — the burden falls disproportionately on lower-income people — and major league sports should take a more discerning look at whether the league should be a participant.

Bob Rauch, R.A. Rauch & Associates

NO: While partnering with Kalshi unlocks lucrative revenue by tapping into financial prediction markets, the Padres are playing a dangerous game with public trust. MLB’s history is haunted by gambling scandals, and blurring the line between fan engagement and financial speculation invites unnecessary ethical gray areas. Short-term sponsorship dollars aren’t worth diluting baseball’s integrity or alienating fans who want to enjoy the game without constantly being pushed into financial betting markets.

Austin Neudecker, Weave Growth

NO: The Padres should be cautious about lending their brand to a platform that, despite being federally regulated, derives most of its business from sports wagering and faces unresolved legal challenges over whether they violate state gambling laws. The revenue is attractive, but normalizing betting to fans carries reputational risk and could alienate select longtime supporters. More aligned sponsorship opportunities probably exist.

Mark Kersey, San Diego County Taxpayers Association

YES: Partnerships between sports betting/prediction sites and professional teams are very common in Europe and increasingly prevalent here. However, as a society, we need to tread carefully because millions of young people are wagering sums that they may not be able to afford. Sports betting is here to stay, so it is up to parents (with potentially a role for schools as well) to teach financial literacy, wisdom and the responsible spending of limited dollars.

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