Pakistan has deadliest year in decade as Taliban ties worsen

Pakistan recorded its deadliest year of violence in a decade, with gunfights, airstrikes, and suicide bombings marking much of 2025, as relations with neighboring Afghanistan deteriorated.

The number of deaths from insurgent attacks climbed to 3,967 nationwide, the highest since 2015, according to the latest data from the South Asian Terrorism Portal. At least 1,070 violent incidents ranging from bomb blasts to gun battles occurred in the year through Dec. 27, in which civilians, soldiers and militants were killed. The report does not breakdown attacks by group, though officials and analysts have repeatedly pointed to the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, which is aligned with the Taliban in Afghanistan, as a key driver of the surge in violence.

Pakistan blames the Taliban-led government in Kabul for harboring and supporting the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan or TTP, which it says was behind a string of high-profile attacks this year, including a suicide bombing that killed seven Pakistani soldiers at a military compound in North Waziristan in the fall. Days later Kabul accused Islamabad of carrying out airstrikes inside northeastern Afghanistan and killing several civilians, a claim Pakistan denied.

The Afghan Taliban has rejected Pakistan’s claims that it shelters TTP leaders, saying it has barred Afghans from leaving the country to fight elsewhere. Its spokesperson said in early November that the TTP emerged in response to the Pakistani military’s support for the US war and drone strikes in tribal areas from 2002 onwards.

The Taliban’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to requests for comment.

Turkey and Qatar tried to broker talks between the two sides in late November but the efforts collapsed within weeks, and tit-for-tat border clashes continued through December.

Relations between the two sides have slowly eroded since the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in 2021, after the withdrawal of US-led forces. Islamabad had backed the takeover, betting that a friendly government in Kabul would help rein in TTP militants in Pakistan. Instead, the TTP became emboldened, escalating its insurgency across tribal areas.

“The Afghan Taliban has categorically said that they don’t consider TTP as terrorists,” said a Lahore-based international relations expert Rashid Ahmad Khan. “I don’t foresee an early solution to this very complex issue.”

U.S. in Afghanistan

The TTP’s campaign has evolved over the years. Once focused on punishing Pakistan for supporting the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, the group now seeks to overthrow the Pakistani state and impose its version of Islamic law. It rejects the Durand Line — a border drawn by British colonial authorities separating Pakistan and Afghanistan — a stance shared by the Afghan Taliban, who view it as an artificial construct dividing Pashtun tribal lands.

As attacks have grown more frequent, Pakistan has become the world’s second most affected country by terrorism, according to a global terrorism index. The TTP has gained access to sophisticated weapons, including drones, US-made snipers and night vision goggles, many of them inherited from abandoned American inventories in Afghanistan.

The group’s leadership operates largely from Afghan territory, while fighters move across the porous border, said Iftikhar Firdous, a security analyst and co-founder of the Islamabad-based Khorasan Diary research outlet. He estimates around 8,500 TTP fighters are currently active in the region.

For the Afghan Taliban, confronting the TTP carries its own risks. Cracking down could fracture militant alliances and drive fighters toward rival terror groups as Islamic State and Al Qaeda both are seeking recruits.

That calculation complicates Kabul’s relationship with Pakistan, a key trade partner and transit route. Border closures and clashes have disrupted commerce in recent months, contributing to inflationary pressures inside Pakistan. Exports to Afghanistan plunged from $115 million in November last year to $9.54 million this November, according to the State Bank of Pakistan, while hundreds of cargo trucks remain stranded on both sides of the border.

Refugees have borne the brunt of the fallout. Pakistan hosts nearly two million Afghans, many of whom arrived during earlier waves of conflict. In recent months, Islamabad deported tens of thousands of Afghans whom it calls illegal residents, arguing the move is necessary to curb militant influence.

Pakistan’s current political order, shaped by the military’s expanded role under Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, has left little space for diplomacy while elevating military responses to the long-running TTP insurgency, according to Lahore-based analyst Khan.

“If you leave it, even if it is a war against terrorism, only to the generals and exclude civilian political input and decision making at the top, then you cannot win that war,” said Khan.

Pakistan’s anxieties over India are also growing. Islamabad has often accused New Delhi of backing the TTP. Ties between the Afghan Taliban and New Delhi are warming up and the two sides are discussing opening trade routes bypassing Pakistan.