Could House control change party hands before November?

WASHINGTON — The unexpected death of California Republican Doug LaMalfa is a sad reminder of the fragility of the GOP’s House majority on Capitol Hill.

In 2024, House Republicans won a 220-215 majority. But that’s with all of the seats filled, and that margin has fluctuated over the past 12 months with four deaths and four departures. In fact, Republicans began the 119th Congress at 219 seats, with Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz resigning before lawmakers were sworn in.

LaMalfa’s death coupled with the resignation of Georgia Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene leaves the House at 218 Republicans and 213 Democrats. Yet the GOP majority is functionally narrower with Indiana Republican Jim Baird recovering after a car crash and presumably unable to make it to Washington for votes. Meanwhile, Democrats have two vacancies of their own.

While it’s still unlikely that control of the House will switch party hands before the November elections, it can’t be ruled out completely.

The last time control of a chamber flipped in the middle of a congressional year was more than 20 years ago. In May 2001, Vermont Sen. James M. Jeffords left the Republican Party to become an independent and caucus with Democrats, making South Dakota Democrat Tom Daschle the new majority leader.

The last time the House changed hands before a full election was nearly a century ago. In 1930, Republicans won a razor-thin majority on Election Day but by the time Congress convened some 13 months later, enough members had died and been replaced that it was Democrats who organized the chamber.

Republicans are still emboldened by the 2024 results that saw them win the White House, flip the Senate and retain the House, but Speaker Mike Johnson’s grip on the House continues to be precarious. Even though the vacant seats have so far opened up in safe Republican or Democratic territory, the timing of those vacancies still has an impact on chamber control and Republicans’ ability to pass legislation.

The calendar

House Democrats will gain a vote following the Jan. 31 special election runoff in Texas’ 18th District. The seat has been vacant since Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner died in March last year. The party is guaranteed to hold the seat considering two Democrats, former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards and acting Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee, are facing off. That will bring the House to 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats.

The all-party special election in Georgia’s 14th District to succeed Greene will take place March 10. But an April 7 runoff looks probable at this point, with a large field of unknown candidates. Given that President Donald Trump finished ahead of Kamala Harris in the district by 37 points, the seat will likely have a new Republican voting in Congress when the dust settles. That would bring the House to 219 Republicans and 214 Democrats.

Democrats then are likely to hold New Jersey’s 11th District, which is vacant after Rep. Mikie Sherrill resigned in November following her election as governor. Democrats here have a 13.5-point advantage, according to Inside Elections’ Baseline metric, which measures a district’s political performance by combining all federal and state election results over the past four election cycles into a single score.

Given that and the current political environment, the Feb. 5 Democratic primary will be the most important race. But the seat won’t be filled until after the April 16 special general election. That would bring the House to 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats.

LaMalfa’s 1st District in California was redrawn last year to be safely Democratic. But the special election to succeed him will be conducted under the current lines — which saw Trump best Harris here by 25 points — so a Republican will be heavily favored to win. According to state law, Democratic Gov.

Gavin Newsom has 14 days to declare a special election, which can take place between 126 and 140 days after that. That means the initial race could take place on June 2, the same time as the regular primary for the newly redrawn 1st District. If no one takes a majority of the vote in the special election, a face-off between the top two vote-getters would be necessary.

If the GOP holds the 1st District as expected, the House would finally be back to full strength, with 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats. But it seems unlikely that there won’t be more vacancies this year.

More to come?

Beyond politics, LaMalfa’s death is a sad reminder of mortality and the fragility of life. At 65, he certainly wasn’t the oldest member of Congress (127 incumbent lawmakers are older), and there wasn’t public evidence of an underlying illness.

Some of the oldest members are not running for reelection, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be any deaths before the election.

Also, tragedies happen. Baird’s current situation is an eerie reminder of 2022, when 58-year-old Republican Rep. Jackie Walorski of Indiana was killed in a car crash.

But deaths are not the only thing that could tip the balance of power this year, considering departures account for some of the vacancies as well. Greene left after coming to an impasse with Trump and his administration, particularly over the Jeffrey Epstein files. GOP Rep. Mark E. Green left Tennessee’s 7th District to take another job. Gaetz and fellow Florida Republican Mike Waltz left to join the Trump administration, though only one of them made the successful jump.

Legal issues could also be a factor. For instance, New York Republican George Santos was expelled in 2023, opening up a Long Island seat that Democrats went on to flip. But an expulsion seems less likely this time around, even in extreme circumstances, based on the narrowness of the House majority.

And not long ago, there was talk of other disgruntled Republicans joining Greene at the exits. South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace batted down those resignation rumors last month, but that doesn’t mean other lawmakers won’t entertain the possibility as the cycle evolves.

Even if Republicans technically maintain a majority, passing legislation could be a challenge. There could be more members like Baird who may not be able to make it to Washington for votes, and there are lawmakers such as Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie who don’t appear interested in blindly supporting the president.

The phrase “Every seat matters” is typically dismissed as a cliché. But for the 119th Congress, it really does apply.

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