Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party was set to secure its first-ever election victory in the eastern Indian state of West Bengal, expanding its support base across the country and bolstering his standing as the nation’s most popular leader.

The Bharatiya Janata Party was leading in 199 seats in vote counting for the state legislature Monday, while incumbent Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress was ahead in 88, according to Election Commission data. The results, which aren’t finalized yet, show Modi’s party on track for a two-thirds sweep in the 294-member assembly.

The milestone win expands the BJP’s reach to the east, beyond its traditional strongholds in northern and western India, and ends Banerjee’s 15-year grip on the state. Modi was the BJP’s star in an aggressive campaign that focused on combating illegal immigrants, promises of cash handouts, and criticism of Banerjee’s rule. The election was also marred by opposition allegations of voter roll manipulation after 9 million people were struck off the list three weeks before the polls.

In the southern state of Tamil Nadu, early results pointed to a shock loss for the incumbent Chief Minister MK Stalin, another key opponent of Modi. C. Joseph Vijay, an actor-turned-politician, was closing in on securing a majority of the seats. The state is home to car factories, electronics manufacturing and key facilities for Apple Inc.’s iPhone production.

The election results in West Bengal strengthen Modi’s position before next year’s vote in Uttar Pradesh, the biggest of India’s states, where the BJP’s support had waned two years ago. It also presents a turnaround from the general election in 2024, when the ruling party failed to win a majority.

“This is an era of BJP dominance,” said Shumita Deveshwar, chief economist at GlobalData.TS Lombard. “This makes the BJP more powerful,” and brings the party closer to two-thirds support in the upper house of the parliament, she said.

Indian stocks climbed on Monday, with the benchmark NSE Nifty 50 Index rising 0.5% at the close, supported by a broader regional tech-led rally and optimism after the election results. Adani Group companies, which have aligned themselves closely with the prime minister’s development goals, jumped, with flagship Adani Enterprises rising 3.2% to its highest level since November.

West Bengal has traditionally been a holdout for the opposition and was governed by leftist parties for decades before Banerjee came to power in 2011. The BJP had made steady inroads in the last state election in 2021, and this year fought a controversial campaign that painted Banerjee’s party as soft on illegal immigrants and riddled with corruption.

A contentious revision of voter rolls may have also weighed on results. The Election Commission removed about 12% of names from the voter list, saying the move was aimed at deleting duplicate entries and illegal migrants. Opposition groups alleged that Modi’s Hindu-nationalist party used the exercise to target mainly poor and Muslim voters.

The support for Modi strengthens his hand as he grapples with economic pressures triggered by the Iran war. India is heavily reliant on energy supplies from the Middle East and has been hit by gas shortages and surging oil costs.

The result validates the the “policy strategy of welfare and national security” led by Modi and his Home Minister Amit Shah, said Madhavi Arora, economist at Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.

“The implications would ripple well beyond the state,” she said. “Expansion of BJP’s eastern footprint in a big state ahead of next year’s UP election strengthen its narrative of becoming a truly pan-India party.”

High turnout

Turnout in the West Bengal election was unusually high at over 90% as hundreds of thousands of Bengali workers across the country made the trip home to cast their ballots, concerned they may lose access to benefits after the voter revision exercise, or that they may lose their citizenship.

The results reflect anti-incumbency sentiment and the impact of the voter roll changes, said Neelanjan Sircar, an associate professor at Ahmedabad University.

“There is a huge rural-urban gap in Bengal so that was very clear and then there is huge Hindu-Muslim polarization, which is more effective in urban areas,” Sircar said.

Modi’s party also sought to woo women voters directly. It promised to double cash handouts to them and ahead of the election, pushed to increase the number of seats in the parliament for women to at least a third. Although the proposal was defeated by the opposition, Modi used it to portray rival parties as against women’s empowerment. The party also raised concerns about women’s safety under Banerjee, highlighting a 2024 rape case at a Kolkata medical college.

Achhelal Yadav, a former leader from Banerjee’s party who switched sides to the BJP about three weeks before the election, said voters were swayed by the ruling party’s promises of economic development and its Hindu-first ideology.

“People are fed up,” he said from his home in Uttarpara constituency. “They want change. There are no jobs, no development. Modi ji has promised development.”

Sathi, a 37-year-old woman from the same constituency, said she voted for the BJP for the first time, citing concerns over women’s safety and criticizing Banerjee’s government for “Muslim-appeasement policies.” She worried that Muslims crossing the border from Bangladesh would bring with them more hardline religious views, concerns often raised by Modi’s party in campaign rallies. Sathi declined to give her full name or details of her job for fear of possible reprisals.

In other election results, early counting showed the BJP-led alliance on its way to win a third consecutive term in Assam state, paving the way for Himanta Biswa Sarma to continue as chief minister. The party focused its campaign on security and illegal migration from neighboring Bangladesh, while promising increased spending on development projects.

In Kerala, which has a history of alternating governments, early results showed an alliance led by the Indian National Congress ahead of the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led coalition, potentially marking its first win since 2016.

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—With assistance from Vrishti Beniwal, Chiranjivi Chakraborty, Shinjini Datta and Shruti Srivastava.

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