Lula leads Brazil election poll after shaky start to Bolsonaro campaign

Andrew Rosati, Bloomberg News on Jul 29, 2026

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President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintained his lead over Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of October’s election as a cloud of controversies swirled around the conservative challenger, a new poll found.

Lula leads Bolsonaro by 6 percentage points, 49% to 43%, in a runoff scenario, according to an AtlasIntel survey for Bloomberg News published Wednesday.

The findings were little changed from a month earlier, despite a tumultuous week for Bolsonaro that included fresh legal trouble, new allegations of links to the man at the center of a major bank scandal as well as a fragile political truce with his stepmother.

Bolsonaro’s party officially nominated the senator over the weekend, days after he sought to end a public rift with former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro.

He also denied local news reports that he’d received money from a firm linked to Banco Master SA, the failed lender facing a massive bank fraud investigation. And a Supreme Court judge authorized police to probe Bolsonaro’s ties to Daniel Vorcaro, the former chief executive of Banco Master.

Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has denied wrongdoing in his relationship with Vorcaro and the bank.

But the case has weighed on his presidential bid since May, when he acknowledged seeking funding for a film about his father from the disgraced banker. AtlasIntel had found him in a tie with Lula before leaked audio messages tied him to Vorcaro.

Bolsonaro secured the endorsement of Argentine President Javier Milei, who attended the Saturday party convention and sparked a diplomatic dispute with Brazil after criticizing Lula and a Supreme Court judge.

But he’s struggling to cement alliances with prominent centrist and center-right parties, and has yet to announce his running mate for the election.

Lula’s popularity has ticked up amid his efforts to deliver aid to voters and clashes with President Donald Trump over new US tariffs. His approval rose to 48%, up roughly two points from a month ago, while disapproval fell a point to 51%, within the poll’s margin of error.

AtlasIntel interviewed 5,021 people on July 22-27 with margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.