Trump administration releases long-awaited 10-year plan for dwindling Colorado River

Ian James, Los Angeles Times on Jul 31, 2026

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The Trump administration has released its long-awaited 10-year plan for dealing with worsening water shortages along the Colorado River. It allows for harsh water cutbacks if deemed necessary, potentially requiring California, Arizona and Nevada to cut up to 3 million acre-feet per year — up to 40% of the combined allotments.

But state and local officials say for the first two years, the Trump administration has accepted an offer the three states made to reduce what they take from the river by about half that amount — 3.2 million acre-feet between now and the end of 2028. So California and the other two states have, for now, avoided the harshest possible water cuts.

The Trump administration’s plan, announced Friday, aims to strike a compromise between two quarreling groups: the three downstream states of California, Arizona and Nevada, and the upstream states of Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico.

The 10-year plan is designed to deal with “unprecedented hydrologic conditions,” said Andrea Travnicek, the Interior Department’s assistant secretary for water and science.

The agency said in its announcement that “drought conditions over the past 25 years,” and the likelihood of continued dry conditions, made it “particularly challenging” to come up with new rules.

The Trump administration’s statement did not mention climate change. But extensive research shows global warming, driven by the use of fossil fuels and other emissions of planet-heating gases, is intensifying the extremely hot and dry conditions.

Under the two-year deal, which has not yet been released, officials say California will cut its use of Colorado River water by about 12% through 2028, Arizona will take about 31% less and Nevada 28% less.

The Interior Department called it a flexible approach “to respond to changing conditions” on the drying river through 2036.

The Colorado, a major water source for seven states and northern Mexico, has shrunk dramatically since 2000, and its largest reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, have dropped this year to the lowest combined levels on record.

The federal government was required to set new rules for addressing shortages this year because the old rules are expiring.

Representatives of the seven states have repeatedly deadlocked in negotiations, while the river’s reservoirs have continued to decline.

During the last decade, scientists have found that roughly half the decline in the river’s flow has been caused by higher temperatures, and that for each additional 1.8 degrees the region warms, the river’s average flow is likely to decrease about 9%.