Two new spots to watch in the Atlantic this week as peak hurricane season nears
Published in News & Features
After weeks of silence, the Atlantic is showing signs of life days ahead of the usual peak of hurricane season.
On Friday, the National Hurricane Center flagged two potential systems in the eastern Atlantic to watch over the next few days. One has a low chance (20%) of strengthening into a tropical depression or storm in the next week and the other has a medium shot (50%).
As of Sunday afternoon, forecasters said both systems have slim windows to form before they run headfirst into the tough conditions that have held storms at bay so far this season.
The first, a tropical wave that rolled off Africa’s west coast a few days ago, was several hundred miles west of Cape Verde. The hurricane center said it was likely to fizzle out in a few days as it approaches the intense storm-toppling wind shear near the Lesser Antilles islands, although “some development is possible.”
The second tropical wave looks to have a better shot at strengthening. Forecasters expect it to enter the Atlantic in a few days, and on Sunday afternoon they upped its chances of developing into at least a tropical depression around the middle of the week to 50%.
Long-range forecast models don’t show a strong signal for either system — as of Sunday. If they show development at all, most point the first system straight west into a viper’s den of wind shear and curve the second system into the open Atlantic.
Another factor that eats away at either storm’s chances of development: Saharan dust. Most of the Atlantic is covered with a giant plume of hot, dry, dusty air. That saps the moisture that storms need to fuel up.
“If anything does develop though, it’s likely due to either fizzle near the islands or turn north due to a weakness in the ridge,” Andy Hazelton, as associate scientist at the University of Miami focused on hurricanes, posted on X.
The next names on the storm list are Cristobal and Dolly.
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