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Ukraine renews refinery strikes as Russia fuel crunch eases

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Ukraine resumed attacks on Russian oil refineries, threatening a fragile recovery in fuel supplies after months of strikes helped trigger the country’s worst gasoline shortages in decades.

Kyiv’s forces struck Ufa over the weekend, home to three Rosneft PJSC refineries with combined processing capacity of about 470,000 barrels a day, as well as an industrial site in the Volga region where Lukoil PJSC’s Norsi refinery is located. Norsi has design capacity of 340,000 barrels a day. A strike Friday on another Rosneft oil-processing site in the Samara region was the first confirmed attack on a Russian fuel plant in about two weeks.

The extent of any damage from the latest strikes isn’t yet clear. But the incidents highlight the fragility of a recovery in Russian oil refining. That resumption that was already incomplete after months of Ukrainian attacks forced plants to halt or cut operations, pushed crude-processing rates to multi-year lows, and deprived the global diesel market of a key source of of supply.

More capacity returned during the recent two-week pause in strikes in late October, yet average processing rates remain well below seasonal norms, according to estimates from consultancy Energy Aspects Ltd.

That leaves Russia’s domestic fuel market vulnerable even though long gueues at filling stations, the most visible signs of the summer’s gasoline crunch, have now disappeared.

Moscow has had to lean on rising imports, restrictions on fuel exports and billions of dollars in subsidies to refiners to rebuild supplies. In October, Russia was estimated to have received about 89,000 barrels a day of gasoline by sea, roughly nine times the July level, according to data from analytics firm Kpler compiled by Bloomberg.

Between July and October, seaborne gasoline imports totaled 7.79 million barrels, with Turkey, Morocco and India emerging as the main suppliers.

Russia has also expanded overland imports from Belarus and banned most exports of diesel and gasoline. The diesel ban was partially relaxed only in October, following an agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin, designed to bring down global and U.S. prices for the fuel.

The measures, combined with the partial refining recovery, have helped bring relief to motorists. As well as queues disappearing, average retail gasoline prices posted their biggest weekly decline of the year in late October, according to the Federal Statistics Service.

Prices nevertheless remained nearly 20% higher than at the start of 2026.

The improved supply situation follows the worst gasoline shortages in decades. Ukraine intensified attacks on Russian refineries over the summer in an effort to curb the Kremlin’s revenue and bring the war President Vladimir Putin started deeper into Russia.

 

The resulting disruption squeezed fuel supplies and sent prices higher. Drivers in some regions spent hours waiting to fill their tanks or woke before dawn to get to filling stations before supplies ran out. Higher fuel costs also fed into transportation and production expenses, adding pressure to the wider economy.

Russian authorities responded by banning most road-fuel exports and encouraging imports, while some regional governors introduced rationing.

There are signs domestic production has begun to recover. Official data — increasingly limited as Russia classifies information about its oil industry — showed year-on-year declines in output of several major oil products easing in September. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in mid-October that the gasoline shortfall had narrowed to about 5% of consumption.

For motorists, that has meant a return to something closer to normal. Forums on fuel-tracking apps, websites and Telegram channels that were used to swap information about gasoline and diesel shortages are increasingly being used again to discuss traffic jams, road closures and everyday life.

“Now that gasoline is available, what shall we talk about? The weather is great for October, by the way,” one user from Yekaterinburg wrote in a chat on the popular GdeBenz website.

Lukoil, Russia’s largest private oil producer, is even offering a small discount on diesel to customers who spend 100 rubles ($1.24) or more in its convenience stores — a promotion that would have been difficult to imagine at the height of the shortages.

But the latest Ukrainian strikes put the durability of that recovery back in question.

“As long as attacks on refineries continue across Russia, this website will be relevant,” a user from Ufa wrote in the GdeBenz chat.

—With assistance from Prejula Prem.


©2026 Bloomberg L.P. Visit bloomberg.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

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