WASHINGTON — In a purple-tinged swath of Southern California, Republican Rep. Young Kim has repeatedly vanquished a string of Democratic challengers by trying to steer clear of her party’s hard line.

First elected to the House in 2020, Kim is now the only Republican to represent a slice of Orange County, a onetime conservative bastion where Richard Nixon was born and Ronald Reagan is revered.

Democrats say the region’s shifting demographics — along with rising voter disenchantment over the economic fallout from President Donald Trump’s policies — provide the party with its best chance in years to defeat Kim. She is one of 35 House Republicans that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is targeting in the midterm elections.

“If ever there was a time, it could be 2026,’’ said Jodi Balma, a political scientist at Fullerton College.

However, ousting Kim in California’s 40th District won’t be easy: “It’s the least gettable seat [for Democrats] in Orange County, which is why she still holds it,” Balma said.

The Democratic contenders include 2024 nominee Joe Kerr, a career firefighter and labor union leader who lost to Kim by more than 10 points; Christina Gagnier, an attorney and former member of the Chino Valley school board; art dealer Esther Kim Varet; and Paula Swift, a consultant with a doctorate in education. Nonprofit executive director Nina Linh filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission last week to run for the seat.

A district that Trump carried

In an era of hyperpartisan politics, Kim’s opponents are already taking aim at her centrist image.

Kim Varet referred to the incumbent as a “a faux moderate” who is “going to have to rubber stamp every despicable part of the Trump agenda.’’

The 40th District, which also includes parts of Riverside and San Bernardino counties, slightly favors the GOP. Trump carried it by 2 points last year, according to calculations by elections analyst Drew Savicki, and would have lost it under the current lines by a similar margin in 2020. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race Leans Republican.

Democrats are counting on a boost from disaffected Trump voters who have soured on the tumult that has marked the early months of the president’s second term.

“There were a lot of people who looked at the last election … thinking that it would help their personal family situation, economically,” said Gagnier, who serves as board chair of the Chino Valley Chamber of Commerce. “That’s not playing out the way they thought it would.”

The Trump factor has long loomed over GOP lawmakers in California swing districts — and that shows no signs of abating, with Democrats seeking to tie Kim to the president’s agenda. House Majority Forward, the leading super PAC for Democrats in the chamber, began running digital ads last week against Kim and 12 other House Republicans from swing districts on the economic impact of Trump’s tariff policy.

“The things coming out of D.C. are so destructive,’’ Gagnier said. “Whether you’re a senior or a veteran or a public school parent [or] a small-business owner … these are real things that are impacting [you] day-to-day.”

Democrats are hoping the same trends that pulled down former Republican Rep. Michelle Steel in a neighboring district last year will also scuttle Kim’s reelection hopes.

But while Steel and Kim were among the first Korean-born women elected to the House, they have different styles: Steel had been more openly supportive of Trump and was listed as a delegate for him last year. (Trump returned the favor when he endorsed Steel, calling her “a tremendous champion” for her Orange County district and “a great patriot.”)

In contrast, Kim has cultivated a more moderate image, Balma said: “She kind of flies under the radar.” And she overperformed Trump by double digits in winning a third term last fall.

Longtime ties

A longtime aide to Republican former Rep. Ed Royce, Kim served a term in the California State Assembly before making her first run for Congress in 2018. In that blue wave midterm election of Trump’s first term, she narrowly lost to Democrat Gil Cisneros.

Two years later, she won a rematch by a slim margin against Cisneros, who returned to the House this year from a safely Democratic Los Angeles-area seat.

In Congress, Kim has long sought to emphasize bipartisanship and create space between herself and Trump.

She skipped last summer’s Republican National Convention, when Trump was officially nominated. And since his return to the White House, she has expressed concerns about the impact of cuts to the U.S. Agency for International Development and was among the dozen vulnerable House Republicans who sent a letter to GOP leadership declaring that they would reject a budget reconciliation package that includes large cuts to Medicaid.

“Young is ranked the most effective federal lawmaker from California and top 10 in the House,’’ said Callie Strock, a spokesperson for Kim’s campaign. “She’s committed to getting things done for her community, and her record of bipartisan results speaks for itself — no matter how many new ways opponents try to spin it.”

Always a prodigious fundraiser, Kim brought in nearly $1.3 million in the first quarter of the year, federal filings show, and entered April with about $2.6 million in the bank.

Some Democrats said they worry Kim’s fundraising advantage will be bolstered by divisions within their own party. A costly and divisive battle in the state’s top-two primary could drain resources that could otherwise be spent fighting Kim.

Kim Varet, who is also Korean American, posted a first-quarter fundraising haul of more than $1 million, which included self-funding of $382,000. Although she’s never held elective office before, she said she’s best positioned among the Democratic contenders to run a high-profile race in an expensive media market.

“I’m new to politics but I’m not naive,’’ Kim Varet said. “I recognized very early on … [that this] will have to be an expensive national race.”

Kerr, who raised less than half of what Kim took in last year, said he expects to have the resources to compete this time.

“We basically ran a grassroots campaign without any national support whatsoever,’’ he said.

He said his firefighter background and deep roots in the district would give him an edge with unaffiliated voters and even some Republicans.

“We always had the narrative but we didn’t have the funding,’’ Kerr said. “This time we will.”

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