With 35 candidates and about a third of Peruvians undecided or backing no one, a surprise contender could yet emerge in the final days ahead of the April 12 vote.

Conservatives Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori have been stuck in a technical tie each with about 10% to 12% of support for weeks now, primarily from voters in the capital of Lima, according to the latest polls. But ultimately, it will be regions outside the capital — where 70% of the country’s 34 million people lives — that will make the biggest difference in the election’s outcome.

“There is a systematically anti-establishment, anti-Lima vote, especially in the poorest and most remote areas of the country,” said political analyst Gonzalo Banda. These regions “are going to largely decide the vote,” he added, noting that these are the hardest to poll and tend to have the highest share of undecided voters in a nation where elections are usually decided in the final weeks.

That’s what happened in the last election in 2021, though there have been four presidents in between due to the nation’s unyielding political instability. Support for far-left candidate Pedro Castillo rose dramatically in the final stretch of the race, galvanized by voters in the Andes and southern Peru who were attracted to his promises to rewrite the constitution and redistribute wealth from mining, Peru’s primary export and main source of foreign investment. He had barely registered in polls just two weeks before the vote’s first round.

He went on to win the runoff against three-time runner-up Fujimori, sweeping districts where key mines are located. In Chumbivilcas, near MMG Ltd.’s huge Las Bambas copper mine, Castillo received over 95% support.To win outright, a candidate would need at least 50% of the total vote.

Political projects challenging the establishment like Castillo’s have drawn support from voters in the southern and mining regions, showing a regional divide in Peruvian elections over the last two decades, said Banda, a native of the southern city of Arequipa.

As president, Castillo never implemented those proposals, though during the campaign they unnerved the mineral-rich ation’s business and political elite, leading to a historic capital flight of roughly $16 billion, or more than 7% of Peru’s gross domestic product at the time.

In this election, most Peruvians are concerned about rising crime, corruption, political instability and unemployment.

Rising candidates

No single candidate has a lead across Peruvian regions. But different parts of the country are starting to narrow down their favorites.

Peru’s south is shaping up as a stronghold for leftist economist Alfonso López-Chau, according to the latest Ipsos poll for Peru21. A former central bank director under chief Julio Velarde, López-Chau gained national attention during the late 2022 protests, when as rector of the National University of Engineering he opened the campus to young people who had traveled to Lima from the southern Andes. They were calling for early elections after Castillo was ousted over an attempt to shut down congress and rule by decree.

The legacy of the former far-left president, now serving a prison sentence over his attempted power grab, is being claimed by candidate Roberto Sánchez, who was one of his most loyal ministers.

Sánchez, who surveys show has most of his support in rural areas, is pushing for a new constitution to give voice to the nation’s “forgotten communities.” He has proposed using the central bank’s international reserves to invest in health and education, and renegotiate free trade agreements. At last week’s presidential debate, Sánchez showed up wearing the traditional hat from Peru’s northern countryside that became Castillo’s trademark.

The congressman has been one of the fastest gainers in recent weeks, as has centrist Jorge Nieto. The sociologist and former defense minister vows to transform Peru into a source of more equitable growth, moving “from an extractive model to a diversified and inclusive one.” His support is currently more spread out but mostly comes from urban areas including Lima.

Still, both Sánchez and Nieto are tied at just around 5%, fighting for the third place along with López-Chau and comedian Carlos Álvarez, who is polling stronger in Peru’s north, surveys say. After three decades in television, Álvarez presents himself as an anti-establishment candidate, promising tough measures against crime.

With another round of debates scheduled for this week, there is still time for López-Chau, Sánchez, Nieto or Álvarez to break through.

Whichever one of them is able to rally the regions’ vote will likely get the ticket to the runoff, said political scientist José Incio, professor at Pontifical Catholic University of Peru. “There’s still room for things to align,” he said.

Peru’s recent history would suggest that only one of Fujimori or López Aliaga is likely to make it to the runoff.

“It’s very hard for a White, posh candidate to take off in the Andean regions,” said Banda.

Outside Lima and among working-class voters, the daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori fares better than former mayor López Aliaga. Polls show he would only win in the capital, backed mainly by the country’s wealthiest sectors.

In Peru, “being first too early in polls doesn’t help you,” Incio said. “The one who manages to build momentum last, when there’s not much time left to look for another option, is the one who will gain the advantage.”

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