Trump could face foreign policy squeeze in Senate after primary ruckus

WASHINGTON — New questions have emerged about whether President Donald Trump has lost sway with some Republican senators as they mull action related to a number of thorny foreign policy matters after they have clashed with Trump over the Iran war, the White House ballroom and his targeting of respected incumbents.

Trump’s Senate headwinds could show up most often on matters of foreign policy because second-term presidents typically devote more time to global affairs as they fight lame-duck status domestically. The president this week celebrated the primary defeat of Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., and endorsed Texas state Attorney General Ken Paxton in a heated primary runoff with Republican Sen. John Cornyn. Both Cassidy and Cornyn are widely respected by their Republican peers, creating new intraparty unrest.

Josh Holmes, a longtime former senior aide to Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., wrote this week on X that “the Senate GOP is going to be pretty ungovernable for the next couple months,” adding: “Unenviable task for White House office of legislative affairs.”

Any agreement the Trump team reaches on Iran would likely fall short of the Barack Obama-era pact that Trump scuttled during his first term, Richard Haass, a former senior National Security Council official under Republican President George H.W. Bush, told MS NOW on Thursday.

That likely would lead more Republican senators to ask, as Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chair Mark Warner put it on Thursday: “So, what did we get?”

“There is no way, without massive numbers of troops on the ground, to reclaim the enriched uranium,” Warner, D-Va., said. “We’ve seen a leadership [in Iran] that’s more radical than before. The straits [of Hormuz], we’ve shown how vulnerable they are. And unfortunately, you’ve seen the missile capacity that’s been taken out wasn’t near what we said.”

“So, it may be the best we can do is to get observers back on the ground and a chance to monitor so that they would promise no further enrichment — but that would mean we would be back in a circumstance potentially not even as good as the JCPOA,” he said, using shorthand for the now-sacked Iran nuclear deal reached by the Obama administration, formerly known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

That’s because “it won’t have groups like Russia and China as part of the [enrichment] monitoring group — and that’s after 14 Americans died, billions of dollars spent,” Warner added. “The president could declare victory tomorrow, and there’s still going to be gas prices that will get above five bucks.”

Trump ally Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., an Armed Services Committee member, acknowledged Wednesday that the primary ruckus would make things harder for the party. For some committees, the newly minted GOP nominee for Alabama governor said, “I’m not sure what we can get [to the floor].”

‘Bipartisan opposition’

But when asked if he senses that Trump’s recent moves have undercut his sway with GOP lawmakers, Tennessee Republican Sen. Bill Hagerty replied: “I don’t think so.”

“I was just with the president yesterday,” Hagerty said on Wednesday, “and I think he’s as clear-eyed as he’s ever been, in terms of making certain that he’s doing everything that he can to address the concerns that the American voters expressed when they voted for him 18 months ago. And we need to understand the fact that President Trump is dealing with something with Iran that has been a threat to us for close to 50 years.”

Another Trump ally, Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., said he has sensed “nothing like that” when asked about the president losing pull on the Hill.

“Everybody has the opportunity to support who they believe in,” Scott said of the Paxton endorsement, before suggesting most Senate Republicans would give Trump cover over an Iran war that multiple polls show is unpopular with a majority of Americans.

“I support what he’s doing in Iran. I don’t want to be destroyed by a nuclear weapon. I don’t want my family … destroyed by a nuclear weapon,” said Scott, who is a member of the Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees. “So he’s doing the right thing. I mean, the years of [Barack] Obama and [Joe] Biden put the world in a very difficult situation, and he’s trying to solve it.”

Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., on Wednesday said he has had discussions with GOP senators who privately oppose Trump’s talk of big changes to U.S. military deployments to countries like Germany and Poland.

“I think there’s significant bipartisan opposition to the general idea of drawing down troops in Europe,” Kaine said of the fiscal 2027 Pentagon policy bill. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see some provisions proposed for the bill that would, you know, a president can only do this if they certify it to Congress and give Congress six months advance notice, giving us an opportunity to reject and stop it.”

Kaine’s comment came after the Senate on Tuesday voted 50-47 to move a war powers resolution one step closer to an up-or-down floor vote. That measure, pushed by Kaine and others, would direct the president to remove forces from hostilities against Iran unless specifically authorized by Congress. In a potential sign of things to come for team Trump, Cassidy joined three other Republicans in voting to advance it: Kentucky’s Rand Paul, Maine’s Susan Collins and Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski.

‘Doesn’t work out well’

The fresh fissures raise questions about Republican harmony over matters like how to wrap up the Iran standoff, the substance of a potential deal with Tehran, the simmering Russia-Ukraine war, Trump’s reported tensions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the administration’s pursuit of regime change in Cuba.

One Republican senator who also has shown a willingness to, at times, buck Trump has been retiring North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis. He said he was “disappointed, but not surprised” by the presidential diss of Cornyn.

“I really felt like when Turning Point [USA] endorsed Paxton, that to me was a proxy endorsement for President Trump, so I’m not all that surprised,” Tillis said. “It’s not at all surprising in the eleventh hour. He did it. I respect the president for, you know, making his pick. I think he made the wrong pick. It’s going to be a lot more expensive to hold that seat.”

For his part, Trump has appeared unfazed by the grumbling from some GOP senators following several high-profile wins.

He teased Fox News reporter Jacqui Heinrich Wednesday as he headed to address U.S. Coast Guard Academy graduates.

“Her husband votes against me all the time. Can you imagine? I don’t know what’s with him. You better ask him what’s with him,” Trump said, referring to Heinrich’s fiancé, Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who has voted with Trump less often than other GOP members.

“He likes voting against Trump,” Trump said at Joint Base Andrews beneath a wing of Air Force One. “You know what happens with that? Doesn’t work out well.”

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—Nina Heller contributed to this report.