Can Tampa Bay's lone Democratic representative pull off an upset?

Shauna Muckle, Tampa Bay Times on Jun 25, 2026

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TAMPA, Fla. — Republicans are spending big to topple Democratic U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor, who faces the fight of her political career after redistricting flipped her seat from blue to red-leaning.

But Castor is betting that her history of service in the region still holds sway with voters, including some whom President Donald Trump wooed in 2024.

Her new district, which includes South Tampa and eastern Hillsborough County, would have gone for Trump by more than 10 points.

In a conversation with the Tampa Bay Times, Castor took a similar tack to other Democrats running in Tampa Bay’s red-leaning districts, emphasizing pocketbook issues. She also highlighted the dollars she’s been able to bring back to Tampa Bay.

Tampa Mayor Jane Castor (no relation) estimated that the representative has brought “close to, if not more” than $100 million in federal funds to the city since 2019.

“Losing Kathy Castor as our congressional representative would be devastating,” the mayor said.

Cook Political Report rates Congressional District 14 as “leans Republican,” one of its most competitive designations. Expect the airwaves to reflect that this fall — the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC affiliated with House Republicans, announced it’s planning to spend $6.5 million on ads in Tampa as part of its effort to pry seats from Democrats after redistricting.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, meanwhile, added Castor to its list of front-line incumbents, which could bring more dollars her way.

Here’s some of what the imperiled Democratic representative had to say about her path to victory. This transcript has been edited for length and clarity.

Q: What are your thoughts on the new congressional map, particularly how it reconfigures political power in Tampa Bay?

A: We’ve watched the redistricting go on across the country. A lot of the policies out of Washington right now are very unpopular. You know, they took healthcare away or made it more expensive for millions of Americans, but especially in Florida, we know the cost of living is high. So they embarked on this out-of-the-ordinary redistricting outside the 10-year cycle.

I really thought that in our state constitution, that the will of the voters in Florida was so clear that Florida would not go down that road. But here we are.

Q: You’re now in one of the most competitive U.S. House races in the country. With this new configuration, where do you think your path to victory runs through?

A: It is going to be competitive, but I love a challenge, and I love my hometown.

(The new district) is an area rich in veterans and military families, and the civilian workforce at the (MacDill) Air Force Base, and Central Command, and Special Operations Command. If you live in my current district now, you probably are aware that I’m fighting for a salary increase for military service members, and I’ve been working on housing on the base. But I’ve got to communicate that to all of the service members and civilian workforce that live out in Fish Hawk and in Riverview.

That’s the challenge: breaking through, being able to communicate and get to know a lot of new people and have them get to know me in a short amount of time.

Q: How do you reach so many new constituents in the four months that we have left before the general election?

A: It’s being on the ground as often as I can be, being out on the weekends. I’ll have more time in the coming months to do that every single day.

It’s being able to communicate on TV, on digital. Everywhere I go, it’s really valuable to the voter to see me in person, but it is invaluable to me to be a good representative to get to know people personally, look them in the eye, hear their hopes and understand their challenges.

Q: How are you planning to counter the millions Republicans are planning to spend in this race?

A: This is one of the most competitive races in the country, and I am ready. You have to balance the time you spend asking for resources, doing fundraisers across the district.

I have a strong record of delivering, and folks across the aisle could vote for me every election I have, because I have been out there solving problems.

I have a strong team in the district. They cut through the red tape, whether it’s the IRS or getting veterans’ benefits squared away. We brought $709 million back to Hillsborough County for housing repair and infrastructure repair tied to the hurricanes.

Q: What have you learned over your 20 years in Congress about getting federal dollars back to your district that might be hard for a freshman member to replicate?

A: The relationships I have with all of our local partners ... and then understanding the levers here in Washington, D.C.

There would be an enormous learning curve for a freshman member. It does take time to learn, and we don’t have time for that in our area. We’re growing. There’s too much congestion. There are too many needs at the port, the airport, at the base and for veterans.

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