After redistricting, DeSantis hedges bets on who will win 4 new red seats

Shauna Muckle, Tampa Bay Times on Aug 24, 2026

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Gov. Ron DeSantis led the charge this spring to redo Florida’s congressional map, making four seats held by Democrats red-leaning.

But in an election cycle that’s expected to favor Democrats, DeSantis was cautious about Republicans’ ability to flip all four of those U.S. House seats.

“This year they’re winnable, but I think it’s going to require some effort,” he said at a news conference in Tampa on Monday.

The political environment in 2026, DeSantis said, is a “little bit different” than it was in 2022, when Republicans established a supermajority in the Legislature and the governor won a second term by almost 20 points against Democrat Charlie Crist.

“If this were 2022 and these guys were running those races, we’d win all four, no questions, slam dunk,” DeSantis said.

This year, President Donald Trump’s approval rating is deep under water. Democrats lead the generic ballot by almost 7 points.

That national mood is something Republican challengers will have to combat, DeSantis said.

The governor said he’s spoken to the winners of the congressional primaries who are now challenging incumbent Democrats, as well as former news anchor Ryan Elijah, who won the GOP nomination over sitting GOP Rep. Cory Mills for a Central Florida district that leans toward Trump by around 12 points.

“We may have lost that with Cory Mills,” DeSantis said of the incumbent, who was accused of sexual misconduct and financial fraud.

DeSantis said he’s helping the challengers “in different ways.” But the course may already be set, he said.

“Once you get past Labor Day, a lot of this is baked in the cake, right?” he said.

He compared this cycle to his initial run for governor in 2018, another blue wave during Trump’s first term in office. Then, about half a percentage point separated DeSantis from Democrat Andrew Gillum.

“We had the wind in our face, and it just was what it was,” DeSantis said.

Republicans now have a formidable registration advantage of more than 1.5 million over Democrats, DeSantis noted. In 2018, Democrats had more registered voters than Republicans.

Reps. Kathy Castor of Tampa and Jared Moskowitz of South Florida are the two imperiled Democratic incumbents with the best chances of holding on to their seats, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a ratings service that considers both races toss-ups.

The races are expected to draw national attention and big investments from both parties.

Moskowitz’s and Castor’s redrawn districts would have gone for Trump in 2024 by around 9 and 11 points, respectively.

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