Could Democrats unseat Anna Paulina Luna in 2026? Internal poll buoys hope

Shauna Muckle, Tampa Bay Times on Sep 1, 2026

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The first poll of Florida’s Congressional District 13 after the primary has good news for Democrats as they seek the U.S. House majority.

A Democrat-sponsored pollster, Hart Research Associates, has GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna down by five points in a head-to-head with retired Brig. Gen. Leela Gray, her Democratic challenger.

With independent challenger Tony D’Arrigo included, Gray led by one point. D’Arrigo will appear on the November ballot.

Republicans were quick to note: They’ve seen this tale before.

“This cycle is like a bad re-run of 2024,” Republican Party of Florida chairperson Evan Power wrote on X. “Florida is not in play ... (and Anna Paulina Luna) will crush her challenger — again.”

In 2024, some polls showed Democratic challenger Whitney Fox leading Luna. Luna ultimately carried the district by almost 10 points.

Democrats are expected to perform better this cycle as President Donald Trump faces declining approval ratings. The poll noted that a majority of voters in District 13, which includes part of Pinellas and a sliver of Pasco County, disapprove of Trump’s performance.

But Luna has another advantage: Gov. Ron DeSantis’ mid-decade redistricting made her red-leaning seat safer. Her district now excludes blue-leaning parts of southern Pinellas, like Gulfport, and includes a heavily red part of coastal Pasco County. It would have gone for Trump by more than 13 points in 2024.

Given the nature of the district, Gray is courting independents and Republicans with a more moderate platform that emphasizes anti-corruption and affordability concerns. The internal poll found that Gray had the support of a majority of no-party-affiliated voters and about a quarter of Republican respondents.

“Across party lines, voters here are tired of Anna Paulina Luna and the corruption running rampant in Washington. She stays silent while a reckless war in Iran drives up gas and grocery prices, backs tariffs that hit families at the checkout line, and lets Washington gut the healthcare Floridians depend on,” Gray said in a statement.

Three polls conducted before the primary — one sponsored by Luna, and two sponsored by Gray — showed Luna in the lead, according to a New York Times polling summary. The GOP-sponsored poll from early August had Luna up by eight points.

“Election year same BS,” Luna wrote of Gray on X. “She’s down over 8 points.”

A spokesperson for Luna’s campaign said that the representative “doesn’t pay attention to fake polling.” The campaign also attacked Gray for reporting stock investments in pharmaceutical companies such as Pfizer and firms such as Alphabet that build data centers.

Ratings services such as Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball with the University of Virginia consider the race “likely Republican” — the same designation they gave in 2024.

Still, Democrats hope that backlash against Trump will produce some upsets in Florida this November.

Luna’s seat is a key target of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. They’re also targeting Districts 12 and 16 in Tampa Bay. Those Republican-held seats were also reshaped by redistricting, though both would have gone for Trump by about 15 points.

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