Tom Krasovic: A.J. Preller's moves give Padres a chance to make playoffs, go deeper
Published in Baseball
SAN DIEGO — A.J. Preller did what he had to do.
He added two effective pitchers to a starting rotation that couldn’t be trusted.
Thanks to Preller’s two trades Monday, the Padres now have a much better chance of earning a wild-card playoff berth over the final 50 games and succeeding in October.
The moves for Robbie Ray and Casey Mize ahead of the trade deadline transformed a bad rotation into a potentially average-or-better one.
Each pitcher has put up much better statistics this year than any Padres starter outside of Michael King.
Ray, a 34-year-old lefty obtained from the Giants, shows a 3.08 ERA over 122 2/3 innings and 21 starts. Though his 4.36 fielding-independent ERA argues for his 3.08 ERA to rise, Ray boasts an adjusted ERA that stands 29% better than the league average.
A flyball pitcher, Ray should find Petco Park similarly beneficial to San Francisco’s bayside ballpark. The Padres are much better defensively than the Giants, whose defenders weren’t helped by Ray’s high walk rate.
Mize seldom issues walks. He gets far down the mound, enhancing the perceived velocity of four-seam fastballs and sinkers that average 93.5 mph.
His split-finger fastball and slider are strikeout pitches as well.
Mize lit up a recent game at Yankee Stadium — pitching seven scoreless innings and allowing one hit and no walks while striking out 10.
Banking on the current rotation would’ve been GM malpractice by Preller. The team’s starting ERA stood ahead of only the high-altitude Rockies in the National League entering Monday. Preller was right not to gamble on the comebacks from Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove paying off, although the recent results are encouraging.
If Pivetta and Musgrove can build upon the progress that will put them in Lake Elsinore on Tuesday for their first rehab outing, the rotation in three weeks should look like this:
King, Ray, Mize, Pivetta, Musgrove and swingman Walker Buehler.
The Dodgers and Phillies would still have more upside in their rotations, as might the Brewers. But the Padres now have a competitive rotation to pair with a very good bullpen.
The Phillies and the Diamondbacks pose the largest obstacles to the Padres claiming the second or third wild-card playoff spot.
My guess is that Preller outperformed Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen in the trade market and that the Padres will finish ahead of Arizona in the standings.
Hazen surprised me by not shoring up his team’s injury-weakened rotation. He seems to be banking on successful comebacks from sidelined pitchers.
Phillies GM Dave Dombrowski may have improved his offense by dealing for Luis Arraez. Of some note, the ex-Padre looked out of sorts at the plate throughout the recent four games in San Diego. Arraez shook a hand in apparent discomfort after one at-bat.
If Arraez performs for the Phillies as he has most of this year — batting about .320 with improved power, playing a fine second base, accumulating nearly four win shares — he will spice up a Philadelphia offense that has relied too much on Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
All told, Preller did what he should have done and seemed to do it well.
Thankfully, he retained Ethan Salas, the 20-year-old catcher who rose to Triple-A this month.
Once again, he dealt well-paid minor leaguers to get big leaguers.
Single-A pitcher Kash Mayfield headlined the package that brought Mize. Scouts in this space had said Mayfield was the top trade chip behind Salas. He has a very good changeup, but has struggled to maintain velocity and stuff over a season.
Mayfield’s departure lengthened a trend of Preller trading large lefty pitchers the Padres had taken high in the draft. The others: MacKenzie Gore, Robby Snelling, Boston Bateman and now Mayfield.
Cuban shortstop Joniel Hernandez, with Padres vice president of amateur scouting Chris Kemp to his right, after signing with the Padres on Jan. 15, 2026. (Padres) Helping Preller to land Ray was another prospect who got a lot of money from the Padres to begin his professional career, rookie-ball shortstop Joniel Hernandez.
The Cuban’s signing, for $1.4 million, was announced just eight months ago. Hernandez’s quick hands and lean profile recalled Reds great Eric Davis. This year in his debut season in rookie ball, he has as many walks as strikeouts, plus good slugging numbers. That said, the Padres have regretted trading almost none of the many Latin American signees they’ve moved out under Preller since 2015.
“I like their pickups,” a non-Padres scout said of Preller’s moves. “They gave up good value for (three-month) rentals. But their chips are in.”
Preller has now given his heavy-salaried, veteran-laden team some needed reinforcements while dealing from a farm system that’s ranked last in baseball by some former MLB evaluators.
Ideally, he would’ve also added a lefty-hitting outfielder such as the Rockies’ Mickey Moniak. Alas, the La Costa Canyon High School grad is instead closing in on a two-year extension with Colorado.
“When you get the pitching right, you have a chance,” Preller said.
The Padres have a very fair chance to earn their fourth wild-card spot in five years. From there, it’ll take 13 wins.
That means this: Monday was a good day for the Padres and their fans.
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