There’s a theory — maybe call it a conspiracy theory? — that the reason Nevada gaming win is up despite visitation being down is that the state’s slot machines are taking more money than they’re legally allowed.

But Nevada regulators say not only is that virtually impossible, but that casinos would be foolish to even attempt it.

By regulation, Nevada’s slot machines can hold a maximum 25 percent of the money put into them, meaning players could expect a return of 75 percent. In practice, the percentage split is closer to 93.5 percent-to-6.5 percent.

But a recent study by the UNLV Center for Gaming Research says over time slot machines have been increasingly tighter for the player.

“Hold percentage — the portion of money gambled that the casino retains — has a huge impact on casino revenues,” the UNLV report says. “Even if handle (overall play) rises in a period, a decline in hold percentage can mean a drop in casino revenues. Players naturally prefer a low hold percentage, which returns on average more money to them, while casinos look to balance higher hold with the need to keep players happy.”

Average slot hold: 6.55%

The December report says the statewide average hold on Nevada slots since 2004 is 6.55 percent. But the report also noted that over the past 10 years, hold has increased by 26 percent, meaning players have been winning less than in the past.

In 2025, for example, the percentage hold statewide was 7.15 percent, meaning the state’s machines paid 92.85 percent of what went into them back to players.

Those averages include two months in 2020, in April and May, when there was no casino revenue because every casino statewide was closed because of the coronavirus pandemic.

The UNLV report also revealed which markets have been the most lucrative for players to go.

According to the report, since 2004, the submarket with the highest hold percentage has been the Las Vegas Strip, where casinos have kept 7.57 percent of money wagered, known as the drop.

The second-worst place, from the player’s perspective, was Laughlin at 7.42 percent, followed by downtown Las Vegas, 7.17 percent, and South Shore Lake Tahoe, 6.89 percent.

The UNLV report says the Strip hold was 45 percent greater than the lowest reporting area, Reno, which held at 5.21 percent.

Hold percentage statistics are monitored by the Nevada Gaming Control Board, which regularly audits casinos and requires them to keep comprehensive logs on what slot machines keep in order to collect a percentage of that as a gaming tax.

Nevada’s 6.75 percent tax on gaming win gets deposited into the state’s general fund that pays for a wide variety of services.

Gaming Control Board department heads say their agents conduct audits and check logs in unannounced visits. Because of the large number of casinos in the state, agents generally visit every location once every two or three years.

Rusty LeBlanc, the chief of the Control Board’s Audit Division and Jeremy Eberwein, chief of the Technology Division, which also oversees the Control Board’s gaming lab, said in a recent interview that it would be virtually impossible for casinos to set their slot machines to hold more than 25 percent of the drop permitted.

According to the Control Board’s Regulation 14, “All gaming devices must theoretically pay out a mathematically demonstrable percentage of all amounts wagered, which must not be less than 75 percent for each wager available for play on the device and determine game outcome solely by the application of chance, the skill of the player or a combination of the skill of the player and chance.”

75% hold is the max

But LeBlanc and Eberwein said casinos can’t set their machines to take more than 75 percent of the drop and even if they could, it’s doubtful they’d put their licenses at risk to make more money by trying.

“They have set configurations,” Eberwein said. “For example, one of them might have a configuration for a 90 percent return to player or a 10 percent hold, depending on which way you want to look at it. It’s just fixed. That’s your only option. You can’t say, you know, tweak it a little bit this way or that way. There are just very specific options for that. And that’s all in the program. So you physically can’t pick something that’s got, say, a 40 percent hold. It’s just not there.”

Could a casino sweeten the deal for players by setting machines to give back more to the player?

“It’s pretty common that there are games out there that have a ‘loose option,’ we’ll say, like a 96 percent return to the player,” Eberwein said. “And then the tightest option, you know, just in a typical game will probably be 86 (percent). So that’s really the entire range you have.”

IGT representatives declined commenting on the ease or difficulty of making changes to a slot machine’s hold, but Eberwein said it would take around 15 minutes per machine to make a switch.

Around 25 years ago, slot machine manufacturers developed server-based gaming that enabled slot floor managers to program multiple machines at one time with a few computer keystrokes. Eberwein and LeBlanc said the concept didn’t catch on as much as manufacturers had hoped.

Eberwein said he’s not certain why it didn’t, but he has theories.

Bandwidth needs

“One is that there’s a lot of bandwidth required to do it,” he said.

That’s because those types of systems also are capable of changing game themes and graphics.

“When you have a thousand machines on your floor and you’re trying to download a bunch of things, it can really bog down your network,” he said.

Then, different manufacturers have different types of systems so a casino company might have to invest in several different systems if the floor has games by multiple manufacturers.

Another aspect of casino hold is that it generally takes millions of slot machine spins before they reach the theoretical hold level.

But most of the new slot machine games have a shelf life of six months to a year before casino companies consider replacing them.

The UNLV report says even though hold percentages have been on the rise over the last two decades, random chance is still a factor from month to month.

“Though slot hold has increased, on average, since 2004, there has been a great deal of fluctuation in the monthly hold, and from month to month there is little predictability about exactly which way slot hold is trending,” the report says.

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