Global carbon emissions are falling this year, a drop explained more by the recent oil shock than by countries’ gradual transition to clean energy.

Carbon dioxide pollution from burning fossil fuels will decline by 0.4% in 2026, to 38.2 billion metric tons, this year’s Global Carbon Budget estimates. The main driver is the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and its impact on the oil market, according to the network of 140 researchers who compile the annual report.

Oil-related emissions fell 1.9%, to 12.6 billion tons. The analysts consider it a short-term drop likely to change as oil markets recover in the months and years ahead.

Lead author Pierre Friedlingstein said although the decline is encouraging, “a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution.”

As renewable energy and electric vehicles gain ground, that’s also helping to keep emissions in check. Clean tech deployment is expected to prevent at least two-thirds of what new fossil-fuel sources would have emitted through 2028, said Corinne Le Quéré, a professor of climate science at the University of East Anglia and member of the Global Carbon Budget leadership team.

“That came a little bit as a surprise, a pleasant surprise,” she said. “However, the effect of the oil price (on the 2026 decline) is still substantial.”

Emissions grew 1.2% last year over 2024, to 38.4 billion tons, and this year’s estimate is higher than the 2016-2025 average of 36.5 billion tons. As oil prices stabilize, the war effect might go away and emissions may rise again. That is, unless or until clean tech builds enough to hold oil demand down for good.

The world has yet to see peak fossil-fuel burning, according to the analysis, but total carbon emissions are slowing down, growing 0.3% a year over the last decade compared with 1.7% a year in the prior decade. In 2026, emissions from gas have fallen 0.3% and coal-related CO2 has risen 0.6%.

China is responsible for 32% of annual emissions — but it also accounts for half of the world’s avoided emissions, or CO2 that would be expected without the global energy transition. The country’s emissions this year may decrease by 0.9%, coming after two years of low growth that have intensified debates about when its emissions might peak.

China’s dominance in electric vehicles is well documented. Electric trucks, Le Quéré said, account for half of China’s avoided emissions from transportation.

Trucks “are big. They emit a lot. And they’re also driven a lot,” she said. “So replacing one truck makes a big difference in terms of emissions.”

U.S. emissions are projected to have fallen 1.3%, related to a drop in coal. The U.S. burned more coal last year during a cold winter with a spike in natural gas prices, but it has since resumed its decline. Renewable energy has grown in the U.S. despite policies encouraging fossil fuel development. Solar and wind can be installed quickly and costs continue to fall.

“That’s an indication that market forces are really working,” Le Quéré said. “So with a little bit of policy support, the U.S. could go much, much further.”

Many U.S. energy analysts are expecting growth in power demand for planned AI data centers. Those emissions are not yet showing up as a significant factor in total U.S. emissions, said Glen Peters, a senior researcher at Oslo’s Center for International Climate Research and a leader of the Global Carbon Budget.

“At the moment, AI is still, I would argue, smaller than the annual fluctuations in gas use or electricity use,” he said.

When fossil fuels were the world’s unchallenged energy source, carbon emissions and economic growth moved in parallel. Now, more countries every year are finding that the rise of efficiency and clean energy allows them to decouple the two.

Fifty-nine countries have reduced their emissions while growing economically.

“It’s really starting to expand worldwide,” Le Quéré said. “It’s not enough yet, but it’s really positive to see.”

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