Amid a series of punishing heat waves, demand for air conditioning will increase to better meet the needs of people, industry and more. But such growth comes with huge challenges.

Globally, there are 2 billion air conditioners, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). A significant number of them are concentrated in the U.S., where more than 90% of households have AC units. Expect that number to nearly triple by 2050, with growth driven primarily by emerging economies where incomes are rising, including China and India.

Rising global temperatures are a big concern. Extreme heat has become a very deadly health hazard, responsible for an estimated 489,000 deaths annually. In the U.S., it causes more weather-related deaths than floods, hurricanes and tornadoes combined.

HVAC companies smell a big opportunity. These range from established Japanese and U.S. firms like Daikin, Trane Technologies, Carrier, Mitsubishi and Johnson Controls to rising Chinese manufacturers like Midea Group, Gree, Hisense and Haier. The latter have started to make inroads in AC-averse Europe during the continent’s recent heat wave. For example, sales of Midea’s PortaSplit, a popular portable unit, are more than double (200,000) last year’s total in Europe.

Look for advances that make AC better, cheaper and more energy-efficient. Cooling equipment consumes an estimated 5,000 terawatt-hours per year globally, roughly equal to America’s entire annual electricity consumption. Air conditioners also represent the fastest-growing single source of electricity usage in buildings. Among those in the works:

The future of air conditioning is more than home cooling, which still accounts for the largest share of the HVAC market. Still, companies like Carrier have seen sales sag and started turning their focus to more lucrative ventures, such as data centers. The huge growth in these new applications could prove a strain on power infrastructure around the world, underscoring the importance of the innovations now being pursued.

(Matthew Housiaux is a reporter for The Kiplinger Letter.)

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