Democrats have long outpaced Republicans in deaths in office

It began this year with a Texas Democrat: Sylvester Turner, the former mayor of Houston who had joined the House at the age of 70. He died two months into his freshman term.

That was quickly followed by the deaths of two veteran Democrats: Raúl M. Grijalva, 77, of Arizona, who for years held the top slot on the Natural Resources Committee, and then Virginia’s Gerald E. Connolly, 75, who had risen to become ranking member of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

The three deaths within three months were no statistical anomaly, but rather a continuation of a trend stretching back decades. In the last nearly 25 years, twice as many Democrats have died in office as their Republican counterparts. A disproportionate number have been Black, according to an analysis by CQ Roll Call.

“That’s an astonishing and startling statistic,” said Rep. Troy Carter, D-La., the first vice chair of the Congressional Black Caucus.

More broadly, the numbers point to a trend of more Democrats serving beyond their life expectancy age, which ranges from 64.5 years for a Native American male to 86.3 years for an Asian female, according to a 2022 study from the National Vital Statistics System.

Of the 602 Democrats who’ve served in the House since 2001, 74 of them — roughly 12% — left at or beyond their life expectancy age, the CQ Roll Call analysis found using the study. That’s more than twice the rate of House Republicans, the analysis found.

The issue is even more significant at a time when questions of age have roiled Congress, particularly among Democrats. The party has lost several political powerhouses in recent years, including civil rights icon Rep. John Lewis of Georgia, who died in 2020 at the age of 80. California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, whose health prompted questions about her fitness to serve, died in 2023 at age 90.

Even so, members on both sides of the aisle expressed surprise at the findings.

“I think maybe the Republicans are attracting more of the younger people to get in there, because I don’t know,” said Rep. Troy Nehls, R-Texas. “You’ve got me thinking about that.”

Democrats are older, but not by much. The average age in Congress has trended upward — the median is now 60 years old — an increase of five years since 2001. Democrats are generally a year-and-a-half older than their Republican counterparts.

More Black Democrats dying in office

Even within the Democratic Party, the mortality disparities are stark. Of the more than 1,300 people who served in the House since the year 2001, 125 — fewer than 10% — were Black. Over that period, 33 House members have died in office. Black members made up 11 of the 33 — a third of the total and half of all Democrats who died in office.

While there are a diverse set of circumstances driving this trend, experts who spoke with CQ Roll Call tended to agree on a few factors. They said Black members tend to want to hold on to safe Democratic seats — if they can — partly because of fewer opportunities post-Congress than their white colleagues.

“I think a lot of (lawmakers) can leave Congress and go into lobbying or other sectors, which they will earn, you know, significant sums of money,” said James R. Jones, associate professor of Africana studies and sociology at Rutgers University, Newark. “That is a trend that I don’t see actually happening with Black lawmakers.”

For many older members in safe seats, Jones said, Congress may be the best avenue — and one of the few remaining — for exerting power or influence.

Michael D. Minta, chair of political science at the University of Minnesota, concurs. Lawmakers don’t escape patterns of workforce discrimination, he said, including questions over their abilities and “many of the same kind of stereotypes that Blacks in general, or minorities in general, deal with in the private sector.”

Some Black members of Congress interviewed by CQ Roll Call agreed.

“Systemic racism is everywhere, right? Even in the halls of Congress,” said Carter. “Oftentimes [Black] members leave here with incredible experience and don’t get the same level of opportunity.”

Black lawmakers also face challenges in running for statewide office, where candidates have to appeal to a broader swath of voters. A lawmaker in a safe House district may encounter insurmountable hurdles in statewide contests, especially in states like Mississippi, which has sent Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson to Washington for 16 terms, but is solidly Republican at the overall state level.

Freshman Rep. Cleo Fields of Louisiana would know. He was in the House for four years before redistricting made his seat practically unwinnable for Democrats. While in Congress, he ran unsuccessfully for governor and then returned to the Louisiana Senate in 1997. He left office when he was term-limited more than a decade later, but returned in 2019 until a newly redrawn majority-Black district gave him a more certain path back to Congress in 2024.

“Blacks have a harder struggle than whites across the board, and Congress is no different,” Fields said.

While some former members, like California Democrats Karen Bass and Barbara Lee, have gone on to prominent roles as the mayors of Los Angeles and Oakland, respectively, statewide higher office has eluded a majority of Black lawmakers.

According to a CQ Roll Call analysis, of the members who have left the House since 2001, 90 have gone on to become senators or governors. Two were Black: GOP Sen. Tim Scott, who represented South Carolina’s 1st District, was appointed in 2013 to replace outgoing Sen. Jim DeMint. And Democratic Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester of Delaware was elected last year to succeed retiring Sen. Thomas R. Carper.

Health disparities faced by Black members

Some members interviewed drew a link between deaths in office and broader health disparities faced by all Black Americans.

“Our members of color are carrying extraordinary burdens,” said Rep. Lucy McBath, D-Ga. “Sometimes it takes its toll.”

Rep. Maxwell Alejandro Frost, D-Fla., pointed out that on a broader level, Black men die younger than other population groups.

“We also generally don’t have as much preventative care. Things like colon cancer, prostate cancer — things like that affect us more,” Frost said.

Black men do have an estimated 70 to 110% higher incidence and mortality rate for prostate cancer than white men overall in the U.S., according to the American Cancer Society.

Political science professor Valeria Sinclair-Chapman of Purdue University says that health should not be ignored when assessing political futures — and that lawmakers should know when it’s time to pass the torch.

“We need a set of questions that we ask of any legislator: Are they able to do the job? Are they able to attend votes, to make sense of policy, to do the work that constituents should be able to expect from those that they elect to represent them?” she said.

While Sylvester Turner’s family did not release his cause of death, in 2022 he publicly disclosed that he had undergone treatment for osteosarcoma, a type of bone cancer. At the time, he assured several Texas media outlets he was cancer-free.

Yet his sudden death on March 5, the morning after he sought medical care at a hospital after attending a presidential joint address, still sent shock waves in Texas. What’s more, his remarks from the campaign trail months before were eerily prescient to his own passing.

“My dad didn’t have any access to health care, but he made the decision he was going to work until he couldn’t work anymore because he had nine kids to feed,” Turner told CQ Roll Call in September 2024, six months before his death. “My dad literally worked up until the last day, got seriously ill and passed away.”

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