The likely return to power of a separatist political party in Quebec is set to create a new challenge for Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, just as he tries to hold the country together in the midst of a trade war with the U.S.

Residents of the French-speaking region will vote on Oct. 5, and surveys show they’re poised to choose the Parti Québécois, or PQ. It would return a secessionist party to power for the first time in more than a decade in a province that represents more than 20% of Canada’s economy — the heartland of industries such as jet manufacturing and aluminum.

PQ governments have twice held referendums on breaking away from Canada, with the separatist side narrowly losing the second vote in 1995. If the PQ wins next week, leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon will become Quebec’s premier, and he wants to give secession a third try.

A Leger Marketing poll conducted for Quebecor Inc.’s media outlets after a televised debate last week put the PQ at 30% support, followed by the Liberals at 26%. Premier Christine Fréchette’s party, the Coalition Avenir Québec, is on course for a brutal loss — its support has collapsed to 16%, according to the polling firm.

“The meaning of our people’s courageous fight to survive in French, in our distinctiveness, throughout all those centuries — even though only 2% of the population in North America is French-speaking — is to become a country,” St-Pierre Plamondon said during that debate. “And that moment is coming.”

But there’s a twist. While Quebecers appear ready to give the separatists another shot at governing, most don’t want a new country, at least right now.

It’s possible that next week, the PQ will capture the smallest popular vote ever for a winning party and still claim a majority of the seats in Quebec’s Assemblée Nationale, thanks to its strong support among francophones and the splintering of the vote among other parties.

Support for Quebec independence has stayed at roughly 30% across numerous surveys amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariffs and threats against Canada. Even many PQ voters would vote “no” to secession in a referendum. In fact, only 14% of Quebecers believe an independence vote could win, according to a poll conducted by Synopsys Recherche Marketing for the media outlet La Presse.

But St-Pierre Plamondon, 49, has used his communication skills to help put Quebecers at ease. Among other tactics, he has promised there would be no secession vote until after Trump leaves the White House, to avoid having the president interfere in the debate.

How the PQ leader would approach relations with Carney and the national government remains to be seen.

The prime minister has managed to keep Canada relatively united throughout a trade war that has roiled major industries and dealt a blow to the economies of Ontario and Quebec, the two largest provinces, which are also the core of the country’s manufacturing and finance sectors.

“I want to work with Mark Carney and the other provinces, if and when it is in Quebec’s best interests,” St-Pierre Plamondon said during another election debate. “Respect for Quebec is non-negotiable.” He said Quebec had not been “consulted nor informed” on several recent issues, including Carney’s decision to escalate the trade war by imposing counter-tariffs on about $20 billion worth of U.S. goods. “We were treated with contempt, we weren’t respected there.”

Stéphanie Chouinard, a professor at the Canadian Forces College, said Carney may face a potentially more “forceful” voice on provincial matters and on immigration if St-Pierre Plamondon wins. But the differences might well be “limited,” she said.

“Carney lives in an environment where more and more provincial leaders are fully assuming local powers,” said Éric Bédard, a lawyer at one of Canada’s largest law firms and a former staffer in the government of Jacques Parizeau — the last Quebec premier to attempt a secession referendum, in 1995.

Carney, who’s personally very popular in Quebec, has stuck with the usual protocol for prime ministers and stayed out of the provincial election.

Bédard expects St-Pierre Plamondon would be a “strong defender of the province’s interests” like Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been for her province and its oil and gas sector. Alberta is holding a vote of its own this month, asking citizens whether they want to start a process that could eventually lead to an independence vote. But current polling shows a large majority prefer to stay in Canada.

Some prominent Quebec entrepreneurs have waded into the discussion, saying the next provincial government should focus on economic growth and strip away regulations that are holding back businesses.

“Quebec lacks neither talent nor ambition,” Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. Executive Chairman Alain Bouchard wrote in a La Presse op-ed in French. “What it sometimes lacks is the collective courage to question itself. It is time to restore entrepreneurship at the center of our society’s vision.”

“Proud Quebecer, proud Canadian,” he concluded.

The PQ’s independence agenda has historically sparked concerns among business leaders, as it creates uncertainty that tends to weigh on economic growth. The party’s plan to cut temporary immigration in half and lower permanent immigration significantly adds another layer to their worries.

But Bédard said that St-Pierre Plamondon would be “a very pro-business leader” who will communicate clearly about what the PQ plans to do.

The party released a four-year fiscal plan that forecasts annual expenditure growth of only 1.9% on average in an attempt to reach fiscal balance by the end of the decade. The plan includes massive cuts in civil servants and a gradual reduction in the corporate income tax rate to 9.5%, from 11.5%, offset by a reduction of grants for businesses.

Eric Girard, who has been Quebec’s finance minister since 2018, criticized the PQ’s financial plan as “based on poorly accounted savings.”

Former PQ Finance Minister Nicolas Marceau, who’s running again in this election, said the framework is “prudent and responsible.”

“We believe in the importance of economic growth and rigorous spending management, referendum or not,” he said.

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