FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — It’s a simple question.

What has Atlanta Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot done to merit faith in the decisions that he will make in this week’s NFL draft?

Most of his record would invite skepticism. It’s not how a Falcons fan would want to approach this highly critical event, but here we are.

The Falcons drafted nine players in Fontenot’s first year on the job (2021) and only two of them are still on the roster. Arguably, only former center Drew Dalman, a fourth-round pick who went on to start 40 games and in March signed a $42 million contract with the Chicago Bears, has outperformed his draft slot.

The Falcons have 20 players drafted under Fontenot’s watch who are on the roster still. The two reigning Super Bowl teams, Kansas City and Philadelphia, have 24 and 22, respectively.

The Chiefs and Eagles have surpassed the Falcons in draft efficiency despite the fact that their drafted players have had to make rosters that were stronger than the Falcons’. In addition, the comparison in quality of those retained players is really no comparison at all.

On the whole, players drafted by Fontenot have not become starters. This past season, the Falcons had four players taken in the past four drafts who started at least 10 games (running back Bijan Robinson, tight end Kyle Pitts, wide receiver Drake London and left guard Matthew Bergeron). Compare that with 11 for the Detroit Lions and 10 for the Baltimore Ravens, among others who outperformed the Falcons by this measure.

The Lions draw a noteworthy contrast. After firing then-GM Thomas Dimitroff during the 2020 season, the Falcons interviewed then-Rams college scouting director Brad Holmes for the vacancy before hiring Fontenot. The Lions hired Holmes.

Holmes-drafted players have started a combined 488 games for the Lions, compared with 377 for the Falcons by Fontenot draftees. The latter total is even more glaring because those players had expansive opportunities to start given that the Falcons had little salary-cap room in 2021 and 2022 to sign free agents and not much talent to compete with on the roster.

A total of seven Detroit players picked by Holmes have earned Pro Bowl and/or first-team All-Pro selections, only one of whom was drafted before the Falcons could have taken him. In the same time frame, the Falcons have had two draftees who earned Pro Bowl status (Robinson and Pitts).

That goes a long way to explaining why the Lions broke a six-year playoff drought in 2023, advanced to the NFC title game that same season and have won 27 regular-season games in the past two years while the Falcons have recorded seven consecutive losing seasons, each one postseason-free.

It might go without saying, but drafting poorly has a multiplying effect that greatly hinders a team’s competitiveness.

First, you’re stuck with a player who isn’t what you thought he’d be. Then, you have to either spend another draft pick later to replace him or sign one in free agency, eating up salary-cap room. And further, the player you should have taken is now playing against you and not costing your opponent much money.

Fontenot largely has hit on his first-round picks — Pitts (2021), London (2022), Robinson (2023) and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (2024). I do applaud Fontenot for making the much-ridiculed Penix pick when Kirk Cousins had just been signed to a huge contract. It took guts, but it may have provided the Falcons with a long-term solution at the most important position.

Still, credit for hitting on early first-rounders should be measured. When drafting at No. 4 or No. 8, as the Falcons have done the past four years, it’s much easier to pick winners.

The players selected immediately after the Falcons first-rounders include a four-time Pro Bowler (Ja’Marr Chase), a three-year starter who was rated a tie for the No. 9 offensive tackle in the league last season by Pro Football Focus (Charles Cross), an integral piece of the Eagles’ Super Bowl champion defense (Jalen Carter) and a receiver who caught 54 passes as a rookie (Rome Odunze).

With the arguable exception of Pitts, Fontenot’s choices have panned out, but it wasn’t like he was uncovering diamonds in the rough.

At Fontenot’s predraft media availability Wednesday, I asked him to assess his draft record. He didn’t answer it directly, mentioning two big later-round hits (running back Tyler Allgeier and Dalman) and going on to say that the team focuses on what didn’t go well and how the process can be improved.

Regarding what he’s learned that can be improved, he said that it comes down to having a clear vision for a player’s role and then the discipline to take the best player available and avoid the temptation to reach for a lower-rated player because he fits a need.

I’m not convinced that reaching for players has been the Falcons’ biggest draft problem. They’ve taken a number of players who would have proved poor selections even if they had been taken a round or two later. Further, they’ve misevaluated players, which is why they continue to be without an effective pass rusher.

And so here we are.

Maybe the Falcons will crank out winners this weekend. For the likable Fontenot’s sake, it’d be welcome. On behalf of despondent, playoff-longing Falcons fans everywhere, I’d love to write, “Yo, the Falcons are going to rock this draft, no cap!”

But it would not be an honest opinion and, besides, my kids would “roast” me for being “so cringe” and call me a “complete embarrassment” to “everyone in our family” as well as “the entire continent of North America.”

Is a more disciplined draft process going to fix what ails the Falcons?

To trust in that would require faith.

A lot of it.

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