NEW YORK — Brad Lander leads Rep. Dan Goldman by a huge 34% margin in a new independent poll of their Democratic primary race in the NY-10 district spanning lower Manhattan and a chunk of Brooklyn, while two other high-profile NYC congressional races are too close to call.

The former city comptroller and mayoral candidate swamps Goldman by an overwhelming 57%-23% margin in the Emerson College poll of 450 Democratic voters conducted for the WPIX television station, a shocking advantage over the two-term incumbent.

The survey suggests Lander, who is running as a progressive with support of Mayor Mamdani, is running away with the contest with just over a month to go before the June 23 primary.

The poll showed much tighter races in two other contentious Democratic congressional primary races for seats left open by the planned retirements of longtime representatives Jerry Nadler and Nydia Velazquez.

Assemblyman Micah Lasher leads Assemblyman Alex Bores by a 22%-20% margin in the fight to replace Nadler in the NY-12 district covering the Upper West Side and Upper East Side of Manhattan.

Kennedy scion Jack Schlossberg, who led some earlier polls, trails with 11%, while conservative lawyer George Conway has 10%.

In the NY-07 district spanning northern Brooklyn and western Queens, Assemblywoman Claire Valdez holds a narrow edge over Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso.

Valdez, a first-term lawmaker who has the backing of Mamdani, leads Reynoso by a 23%-21% margin, with Councilwoman Julie Won trailing with 13%.

The poll showed strong support for Mamdani among Democrats in all three deep-blue districts, with his approval rating ranging from 66% in NY-12 to 78% in NY-10.

The narrow leads for Lasher and Valdez track with the conventional wisdom among political analysts about the state of play in those races.

But the size of the lead for Lander is likely to send shockwaves through the political establishment, most of which lined up behind Goldman, including Gov. Hochul and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries.

The poll of NY-10 showed 20% of voters undecided and a 4.5% margin of error.

If Lander wins by anything close to the more than 2-1 margin reflected in the survey it would represent a huge political victory for Mamdani who has backed Lander after the two men forged an unusual feel-good alliance in the 2025 mayoral race. Goldman refused to back Mamdani even after he won the Democratic primary.

A recent poll by a pro-Goldman group showed a tighter race with Lander ahead by 5%.

“Brad Lander has objectively been the favorite since he launched, but just an absolutely devastating poll for Dan Goldman,” tweeted Adam Carlson, a Democratic pollster who has seen other surveys of the race.

Goldman aides dismissed the new poll, claiming it overestimates the number of younger and well-educated people who will vote in a low-turnout primary.

“The data we’ve seen shows a dead heat,” said Simone Kanter, a spokesman for Goldman.

Lander’s team said it would keep on running “the fight of our lives.”

“We’re taking nothing for granted,” said Emily Minster, a spokeswoman for Lander.

The survey didn’t break down results between the Manhattan and Brooklyn portions of NY-10. Lander, who spent decades as a community activist and city councilmember in his Park Slope neighborhood, is expected to dominate the more-populous Brooklyn section.

The poll didn’t ask voters about policy preferences, so it’s impossible to say if the well-publicized split between the two candidates, both of whom are Jewish, over Israel is driving support for Lander.

Goldman has portrayed himself as a strong supporter of the Jewish state, although he says he disagrees with right-wing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Lander has taken a more progressive stance and opposes all military aid to Israel, especially in light of the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

Lander has also framed himself as a more aggressive critic of President Trump, especially on immigration, and was arrested trying to protect an undocumented immigrant from detention by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents. Goldman counters that he has won improvements in conditions at a NYC detention center with quieter advocacy.

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